If learning to walk comes before running, was the latest in the Lions’ assault of Australia a walkover or a runaway victory?
A 10-try victory over a second-tier team that had been together for only two days was never going to be revealing, but the Lions continued with their strategy of getting the ball wide and off-loading in contact. Even Sean O’Brien vacated the narrow channels.
It became a contest with themselves, the desire to stick to their overall gameplan diluted by the sight of the treats on offer: the Lions made three basic errors in a three-minute spell at the start of the second half in the opposition 22; even Brian O’Driscoll was among those making handling errors and decision-making lapsed.
Three attacking lineouts close to the line were lost, two in the first half, and the Lions suffered 22 turnovers, a high number despite the surfeit of possession they enjoyed given the modest nature of the opposition. Although they only conceded four penalties all evening, two came during the Country XV’s one spell of pressure in the opening period.
The Lions were twice blown at the breakdown, one area where Australia will think they can gain an advantage, even without David Pocock. It may be why the Lions have looked to score tries from set pieces: International Rugby Board statistics show that the chances of a team scoring a try in a Test are drastically reduced once a move has completed three phases.
The Lions have had few problems in the scrums, although they have faced a front row of international quality only against the Barbarians, and lineout lapses can be worked on in training, but getting the breakdown right – building an understanding between players from different countries – is the single biggest challenge for Warren Gatland and his coaching team.
The Lions have twice fielded an all-Wales back row but the breakdown involves every player, not just a trio. It may have been more than six months since Australia last played a Test but they will have a rapport in the tackle area and it will not have been lost on them that it was a facet of the game where the Reds and Western Force enjoyed some success against the Lions.
The composition of the back row will probably be the hardest selection issue for the coaches. The first Test may see a formation being used for the first time, with Gatland determined to go into the game armed with the element of surprise.
Jamie Heaslip and O’Brien have been used together in two matches, the latter playing at No7 against the Force before moving to No6 on Tuesday. The way Ireland controlled the breakdown against Australia in the 2011 World Cup despite not having a foraging openside, looking to keep the ball off the floor and turning mauls into scrums, runs counter to Gatland’s insistence all year that he wants a breakaway in the traditional mould.
If Sam Warburton, the captain, plays at No7, it will be a question of balance at No8 and on the blindside, tight and looser. The Wales back row of Warburton, Toby Faletau and Dan Lydiate has proved effective in the Six Nations, the predator, the devastating tackler and the ball-carrier, but less so against Australia.
O’Brien offers a ball-carrying option at No6, allowing Heaslip to exploit space, but the Lions have thrown a lot to the back of lineouts and the best ball-winning option there is Tom Croft, a back-rower who likes to position himself out wide.
Croft at No6 would mean Faletau, or even O’Brien at No8, to provide the gainline muscle. And then there is Justin Tipuric, who was preferred at No7 to Warburton by Wales during this year’s Six Nations. The Osprey has the skills of a three-quarter, as he showed against England, a match in which Warburton played at No6.
Tipuric on the openside would be a bold statement of intent, but while Wales had no qualms about playing Warburton on the blindside with Lydiate and Ryan Jones injured, the Lions are blessed with options at No6. Anyway, they are unlikely to want to play fast and loose against the Wallabies, even with Quade Cooper still in detention.
The scrum will be a weapon, a means of winning penalties and position, although it is an area that Australia will have been working on assiduously, and there may be more mauling than has been seen so far. Make it a war of attrition and suck the energy out of the Wallabies, who will also have the sapping task of dealing with big ball-carriers in the three-quarter line.
There is also the referee, New Zealand’s Chris Pollock, to factor in. The least experienced of the three Test match officials, he took charge of England’s Test against Argentina in Salta on Saturday. The visitors were dominant in the set pieces and were virtually out of sight at half-time, but they lost the penalty count heavily.
They conceded 15 penalties and two free-kicks, most in the scrum and at the breakdown. Their repeated infringing earned Courtney Lawes a yellow card with 11 minutes to go and, as was seen in the Premiership final last month when Northampton were blown time and again at the scrum by Wayne Barnes, the way a referee interprets what is going on at the scrum and the breakdown has an influence on a game.
Pollock is typical of southern hemisphere officials in that he allows a contest at the breakdown, but the scramble for the ball has to immediately follow a tackle and the player competing must stay on his feet.
The Lions have so far not been smart enough when trying to slow down opposition ball and they have also suffered when ball-carriers have been isolated. The breakdown in Australia has not been a stroll for Gatland’s men and it is a reason why the outcome of the series is not the given some bookmakers think.
Cooper could still feature
The Lions this week expressed their satisfaction that Quade Cooper had been left out of the Australia squad but, as Mandy Rice-Davies once remarked, they would say that, wouldn’t they.
The Reds were successful in positioning the fly-half in defence against the Lions last weekend so that he was not exposed against big ball-carriers, much like Wasps under Shaun Edwards used to keep Danny Cipriani away from danger.
Cooper had a falling out with the Australia coach, Robbie Deans, last year, describing the atmosphere in the Wallaby camp as toxic, but whatever personal differences he has with the fly-half, Deans needs to win the series against the Lions to have any prospect of taking the team to the next World Cup.
If he thought Cooper’s presence would enhance Australia’s chances of winning the series, he would pick him. He would have to pick him.
For all Cooper’s ability in attack, and his range of passing left the Lions’ blitz defence in bits at times, he would have been a target for the tourists’ powerful three-quarter line.
Did that have anything to do with the Lions not firing heat-seeking missiles at him last weekend? His omission is an indication that a priority for Deans will be to win the battle of the gainline, but will Cooper receive a call should Australia go one down in the series?
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