England will bank on ground advantage to reach Champions Trophy final

Sometimes destiny hangs on the most slender of threads. Last Friday in Cardiff, as the first faint drops of rain arrived on the breeze, Kieron Pollard of West Indies flung his bat at a wide delivery from the South African Ryan McClaren and skewed the ball in the air to third man where it was caught byDale Steyn. It was to prove the final act of a dramatic match and, with the scores identical in runs and wickets under the Duckworth-Lewis calculation that came into operation, the match was deemed a tie with a point each. Thus it was that it will be South Africa rather than West Indies who face England at The Oval to decide who goes through to Sunday’s final of the Champions Trophy at Edgbaston. Pollard’s miscalculation cost his side dear: had he kept his wicket intact, West Indies would have prevailed. It was that tight.

Once the nature of England’s progress had been decided by the outcome of Australia’s match against Sri Lanka, they were immediately installed as odds-on favourites to reach the final, as they were when the tournament was last contested in this country in 2004.

If this might prick the sensitivities of those who view South African cricket as a force across all formats, and England, by contrast, as a staid pragmatic rather starchy unit with a rigid game plan and the flexibility of a steel girder, then it certainly makes historical sense. Of the last 10 completed matches played between the two sides in this country, England have won eight and both the defeats came in the drawn series last year. England may not have the all-round skills or strategies for consistent success in alien conditions abroad, although they are getting better at this, but they are very difficult to beat at home.

It would be easy to argue that their progress, in which they have beaten Australia and New Zealand with some ease, while losing to Sri Lanka, was through the less challenging of the two groups which buttressed their unspectacular approach to batting at the top of the order. A team, though, can only be expected to achieve what it sets out to do at various stages of a tournament and England can point to their position as group leaders for this particular end justifying the means.

Once the Kiwis were beaten at Cardiff on Sunday, the debate centred only on who joined them in the semi-finals and which of them would then travel to Cardiff for Thursday’s second semi-final against India. For England to arrive where they have, though, Australia were totally outclassed while the Kiwis, who had been challenging them neck-and-neck through two ODI series that ended with honours even at three matches and one series apiece, finally ran out of steam.

Between times, against Sri Lanka, they achieved the second highest first-innings score of the tournament, might have expected rather more had it not been for a loss of momentum towards the end as the wickets of the power hitters fell in a cluster and were beaten by a Sri Lankan chase brilliantly underpinned by the virtuosity of Kumar Sangakkara.

England have batted first in each of their games so far, and their strategy has centred on the need to get around half of the runs they deem necessary to win in the conditions on any given day in around 30 of the 50 overs, while keeping wickets in hand so that those with the game to go for broke have the licence to attempt as much. To achieve this they have included Ravi Bopara as an extra batsman and fifth bowler, and he has proved a key figure in the team.

It was, though, a strategy initially predicated on this tournament being played in what might be thought of as typical English conditions, where pitches have some juice in them and the ball swings and seams. However, the length of the winter, with a lack of spring growth, drainage systems that seem to suck away the moisture and balls that have failed to swing significantly in orthodox fashion, has brought other teams into the equation – particularly those from Asia – and especially at Edgbaston. Whoever plays India or Sri Lanka in the final in Birmingham might reflect that their chances of beating either of those two teams would be better enhanced at Cardiff where the pitches have been juicier and there are fewer used surfaces to rough up the ball.

It is unlikely that England will want to go into this game with a strategic change and the only doubt comes in the form of the continuing discomfort of Graeme Swann and the impending birth of Tim Bresnan’s child, in anticipation of which he left the squad and returned to Yorkshire. Swann missed the last match, against New Zealand, it was said, with a slight calf strain – although there is a suspicion that the explanation was a public relations masking agent for continuing concern over the condition of his back.

Certainly, as an absolutely key player in the forthcoming Ashes series, he will not be risked, particularly when his deputy James Tredwell has proved such a fine understudy. Bresnan’s bowling has generally been patchy but he is bringing more control to the attack than currently would be expected from Steve Finn, despite the latter’s lofty position in the ODI rankings.

England will hope the birth comes swiftly and without hitch so Bresnan can return. The South Africans, meanwhile, were waiting on the fitness of Steyn.